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Showing posts with the label Risk Management

Book Review: Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman — The Rarest (and Most Misunderstood) Investing Book in the World

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Book Review: Margin of Safety — The One Principle That Protects Singapore Investors From Permanent Loss (Singapore Investor Edition) A clear, practical breakdown of Seth Klarman’s core idea — and how to apply it to SGX dividends, “cheap” P/E traps, and value investing without overconfidence. Published: 7 December 2025 | Category: Book Review / Investor Education There are many famous investing books… and then there is Margin of Safety by Seth Klarman. A book so rare that, as described in many investing circles: no reprints have ever been authorised, physical copies sell for US$1,500–$3,000 , PDFs circulate quietly in obscure forums, and very few investors — including seasoned Singaporeans — have actually read it. Yet the book is not valuable because it is rare. It is valuable because it explains the single most important principle that protects investors from permanent losses. Core idea: Margin of safety is the difference between being approximately righ...

Margin of Safety: The Most Important Idea in Investing (Explained Simply for Singapore Investors)

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Margin of Safety — The Most Important Idea in Investing (Explained Simply for Singapore Investors) A step-by-step framework to estimate value conservatively, demand a buffer, and avoid the mistakes that cause permanent capital loss on SGX. Published: 7 December 2025 | Category: Investor Education / Earnings Analysis Every Singapore investor has heard this phrase: “Always invest with a margin of safety.” But very few understand what it really means in practical terms — especially in the SGX context where many stocks can look “cheap” on surface metrics. what margin of safety actually means (beyond “buy cheap”), how to apply it to dividends, book value and cyclical earnings, how accountants think about valuation buffers and conservatism, and how to use it to avoid catastrophic losses. This guide explains margin of safety in calm, practical, accountant-level terms — with Singapore-flavoured examples — so you can apply it immediately. Key T...

How to Avoid Being Misled by Headlines — A Guide for Singapore Investors

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How to Avoid Being Misled by Headlines — A Practical Guide for Singapore Investors A step-by-step framework to stay calm during SGX news flow and earnings season — by focusing on fundamentals, not noise. Published: 15 November 2025 | Category: Investor Education / Earnings Analysis Key Takeaways (If You Only Have 30 Seconds) Headlines are designed to trigger emotion (fear, urgency, excitement) — not to explain reality. Always read the original SGX announcement; news summaries often strip away the context. Separate facts (numbers) from interpretation (opinions) before you decide anything. Use headlines only as a trigger to investigate — never as a reason to buy or sell. Distinguish “fake bad news” (one-offs, timing, accounting) from “real bad news” (structural deterioration). Apply the “three-quarter rule” to avoid panic selling on one headline. Compare headlines to long-term trends; single-quarter data can be misleading. Contents Big Picture Results Summar...

When to Sell a Stock — The 12 Signals Investors Should Never Ignore

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When to Sell a Stock — 12 Signals Singapore Investors Should Never Ignore A calm, accountant-style framework to protect capital, avoid hope-driven holding, and make better long-term decisions on SGX. Published: 15 November 2025 | Category: Investor Education / Earnings Analysis Key Takeaways (If You Only Have 30 Seconds) Selling is not about fear — it’s about discipline and protecting capital. One bad quarter is noise; two is a warning; three is a trend — use SGX earnings analysis to confirm. Watch cash flow vs profit : rising profit with falling cash flow is a classic danger pattern. Rising debt/gearing without clear benefit often leads to dividend pressure (especially REITs). Dividend/DPU instability usually shows up before the headline cut — track sustainability early. Management credibility and capital allocation mistakes can be stronger sell signals than “cheap valuation”. The most important rule: if your original thesis is broken , sell — don’t hold on hop...